Arctic Ice Extent Near a New Record Low

The most recent satellite data indicate that there is a strong possibility that the extent of ice in the Arctic could be at a new low before melting stops later this month.

According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, this year's ice pack is already quite a bit below the minimum levels reached in all other years except for the record low 2007. So, even if the ice-covered area began growing again as of today, 2011 would already have the second-lowest ice coverage in the Arctic ever measured. In addition to 2007, 2008 and 2010 are currently the 2nd and third lowest ice years.

Global warming deniers can huff and puff and blow a lot of smoke, but it is pretty tough to explain how the ice in the Arctic, that has endured for millions of years, continues to vanish right in front of our eyes, year after year. Especially difficult when you consider that changes in the ice extent should occur gradually and randomly. Without global warming it is impossible to explain how four of the past five years are also the four lowest years of Arctic ice in recorded history.

The minimum ice mark will only be confirmed after a clear pattern of ice expansion returns, however the minimum could be reached any time between today and the next 1-3 weeks.

Arctic Sea Ice Extent at Lowest Ever December Level

The extent of sea ice in the Arctic hit its lowest December level ever in 2010.

While reports from the National Snow and Ice Data Center have shown low ice levels through all of 2010, the yearly low this past September was the third lowest ever.

Ice has been slow to form this year, particularly in Hudson's Bay and the strait that runs between Baffin Island and Quebec.

High Temperatures in the Arctic

High temperatures in the Canadian and Siberian north are cited as reasons for the slow ice build-up.

These results seem consistent with the predictions of a new Canadian study modeling effects of climate change on worldwide weather patterns over the next 1000 years.

Canadian Climate Study

The study, by researchers from the University of Victoria's Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis and the University of Calgary's Dept of Geography, predicts global weather turmoil, weather extremes and a four-metre sea level rise.

Canada and Russia fare relatively well compared to much of the world in the long-range scenario, as somewhat warmer temperatures would make much of the countries more habitable for people, even though existing ecosystems would be threatened. The study, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, assumes "zero emissions" from human sources going forward.

Vikings on the Prowl: Strong Support for Unified Nordic State

A poll taken across the five European "Nordic" countries, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Iceland, has shown that close to half of respondents would like to see the countries join to form one common union, with one head of state.

Such a country would have a population of about 25 million and would be the world's 10th largest economy.

Intriguing. Such a union would presumably take a bite out of the EU, as it doesn't seem likely the countries could belong to two such unions. It would also create a very substantial player in the "scramble" for Arctic resources and influence.

Arctic Sea Ice Meltdown - Below '07 Record Low

Barely six weeks ago a not-so- freak cold spell in the Bering Sea combined with some weird winds to cause the extent of sea ice in the Arctic to build up to "near normal" levels. (Normal at least in terms of the 1979-2000 average)

This resulted in worldwide headlines blaring from Drudge Report, Faux News and petro-powered right-wing propaganda press word wide.

As in, "Arctic Sea Ice Normal!!".

So, you may be forgiven for being surprised that there are no worldwide headlines today, as the sea ice extent has plummeted sharply to cross the low mark of the 2007 low ice year for this date.

The net result is that the ice levels have gone from relatively high on April 1 to very low and falling on May 23, creating a steep downwards trajectory.

Who knows where this may lead? Given the high temperatures in much of the Canadian Arctic all spring, and that so much of the Arctic ice is already merely single-year ice, rather than an ice cap per se, it looks like another record breaking low ice pack could be in store this year. Then again, another cool snap could reverse the trend enough to fire up the engine on the big anti-environmental propaganda machine once again... Stay tuned!

Northern Pole of Inaccesibility Slams the Door on Human World Domination

The Northern Pole of Inaccessibility is no longer accessible, if it ever was. But, it is one, if not the one, natural challenge that is left to conquer.

Is nature turning the tide on humankind? Have we reached our Waterloo? Our Stalingrad?

By all appearances, yes. The erstwhile overland trek across the dark ice to the heart of the Arctic, at the farthest Arctic point from land, is apparently soon to become a side trip to Waterworld or, more aptly, Slushworld.

Extreme adventurer Jim McNeill, a.k.a. the Ice Warrior, first attempted to conquer the Northern Pole of Inaccessibility in 2003 and was turned back by an attack of flesh-eating disease. A second attempt, in 2006, was stymied by equipment failures and disintegrating ice.

Now, a planned 2010 attempt has been abandoned just days ahead of departure, due to the "worst conditions" for Arctic winter ice in decades.

McNeill said, "The risks of early failure, of cold injury and of needing to be rescued are too high to justify setting out. I believe to venture out in the current conditions would be foolhardy and not achieve any of the scientific and adventurous aims we have and could possibly endanger lives unnecessarily.”

The map of the route illustrates how satellite tracking has revealed a multitude of fissures still in the ice, as well as large masses of ice still in motion, rendering the crossing extremely dangerous, if not impossible.

The Ice Warrior website optimistically states that the attempt has been "postponed", as opposed to cancelled. However, we do wonder what the likelihood of this expedition ever being completed is.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center, which charts Arctic sea ice extent, has shown the ice extent in the Arctic at or near its all time low throughout the entire winter, from October onwards. Last summer's low ice mark was the third lowest in recorded history.

The likelihood seems strong that the possibility of trekking to the Northern Pole of Inaccessibility will soon be gone, because the ice will never be good enough again.

What does that mean in the greater scheme of things? It certainly may signal the beginning of the end of human conquests of the natural world. Although Ice Warrior calls the Pole of Inaccessibility the last frontier, I wouldn't be so sure about that. What about the journey to the center of a live volcano? or to the worlds that exist only on microscope slides?

Whatever the case, to my knowledge, this may be the first time that the door has been slammed so rudely, with such finality, on human ambitions.

To read more into it than that may be a mistake. Is it going to mark a true Waterloo - a turning of the tide? Will it be the end of adventurers? Of adventure? Of course this event alone is not something that will change the course of world history. But the way things are going - the way individuals are marginalized in the interest of the greater good of large institutions; the way freedoms are glossed over in the interest of dubious security measures; the way public opinion is manipulated and information is fabricated... it becomes easier to imagine a world where human ambition is crudely harnessed to little more than its own demise.