Wednesday, April 27, 2011

What If There Were a Liberal-NDP Merger, and the Liberals Who Didn't Like it Joined the ...Greens!

The nightmare scenario of a Liberal-NDP merger has once again cast a shadow upon the land.

Some think it is a possible way for "Liberals" to still win some momentary fleeting hold on power. Most Conservatives probably think of it as a dream scenario, setting up a polarized electorate along phony left-right or "free-enterprise vs. socialist" lines. Conservatives are salivating over this as they imagine hoards of Liberals painting their urban and suburban streets blue, rather than orange.

And, yeah, I agree.  Merge with the NDP would be one of the dumbest thing the Liberals could do. If only because of the divided, polarized nation that would result. 

But, if  I were a Conservative, I wouldn't be so quick to count chickens. There are not many Liberals left who are likely to ever support a Harper-style ReformCon party. If the wackos peeled off to start something with three eyes and left basic PCs, it might be a different story. Some Liberals would go to a PC party. Anyway, merging would still be dumb because it definitely sets up the left-right contest which is destructive and no win.

A possible interesting outcome from a merger though, would be if a large enough bloc of Liberals suddenly went green. Those old dogs like Chretien and Broadbent probably haven't even imagined such a thing. But after witnessing the events of the past week, it wouldn't surprise me a bit.

The Lib-Greens would be a little more centrist than the Lib-NDPs, and could possibly thwart the left-right nightmare. And, who knows what could happen with a dynamic leader. Whether it be a Georges Laraque or someone else

Might even result in a 30-30-30 split of voters, with single digits for the Bloc and who knows, maybe a far-right party. Whereas, in any purely 2-way, left-right contest, progressive forces would be rather hard pressed to win. However, if we had Lib-Greens and Lib-NDPs, it is easily conceivable that progressives could hold onto a 60-80% plurality.


1 comment:

Greg said...

Frankly. this is a media fantasy. I hope we get a reformed electoral system, so we can quit all this merger talk.